Both sides average 3.1 goals across their last five head-to-heads, and City's expected goals (2.31/game) is trending sharply upward at home. With Liverpool missing Alisson in goal and a high defensive line, the model sees a wide-open game. Over 2.5 clears at 78% confidence — well above the 64% the market implies — which is where the +11.4% edge comes from.